AgriCharts Market Commentary

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Corn

Corn futures posted 4 to 5 cent losses in most contracts on Friday, as July expired at $3.30 1/4. Newly appointed front month September was down 5.27% on the week. Friday afternoon’s CFTC Commitment of Traders report indicated that the spec managed money net short position grew by 33,566 contracts. In the week that ended July 10, their net position in corn futures and options was -104,376 contracts. The USDA updated their balance sheets yesterday, showing a 100 mbu increase in old crop projected exports to 2.400 bbu and a 125 mbu jump to new crop shipments to 2.225 bbu. They dropped corn usage for ethanol by 50 mbu for 18/19, but increased 17/18 by 25 mbu. The USDA also tightened the 17/18 cash average price to $3.30-3.50, while trimming new crop by 10 cents to a $3.30-4.30 range. A Chinese auction of state reserves saw 942,336 MT of corn sold, totaling 23.45% of the amount offered on Friday.

Jul 18 Corn closed at $3.30 1/4, down 6 1/4 cents,

Sep 18 Corn closed at $3.41 1/4, down 4 1/2 cents,

Dec 18 Corn closed at $3.54 3/4, down 4 1/2 cents

Mar 19 Corn closed at $3.66 1/2, down 4 1/2 cents

Soybeans

Soybean futures closed the day with 14 to 16 cent losses, as August was down 6.7% since last Friday. Nearby soy meal was down $4.60/ton, with soy oil 37 points in the red. Analysts are expecting next Monday’s NOPA report to show that it’s members crushed 159.637 mbu of soybeans in June, which would be 15.6% larger than last year. Soy oil stocks are seen at 1.807 billion pounds. Thursday’s WASDE showed USDA adding another 15 mbu to 17/18 crush to a record 2.03 bbu, with 18/19 crush up 45 mbu from June at 2.045 bbu. Old crop exports were raised 20 mbu with the help of large shipments in the last several weeks. The USDA took a nickel off the 17/18 cash average price to $9.35, while dropping 75 cents off the range for 18/19 to $8-$10.50 ($9.25 mid-point). Safras & Mercado expects 2018/19 Brazilian acreage for soybeans to jump 2.3% from last year, to ~88.958 million acres, while USDA projects Brazil production at 120.5 MMT. Chinese imports of soybeans during June totaled 8.7 MMT according to customs data, down 10.1% from May. Port congestion has been an issue, with vessels seeing extended wait times to unload.

Jul 18 Soybeans closed at $8.14, down 16 cents,

Aug 18 Soybeans closed at $8.18 3/4, down 15 cents,

Sep 18 Soybeans closed at $8.24 1/2, down 14 1/2 cents,

Jan 19 Soybeans closed at $8.44 1/4, down 14 3/4 cents,

Jul 18 Soybean Meal closed at $328.80, down $4.60,

Jul 18 Soybean Oil closed at $27.80, down $0.37

Wheat

Wheat futures saw 8 to 12 1/2 cent gains in most CBT and KC contracts on Friday, with MPLS steady a penny on either side of UNCH. September CBT was down 3.54% on the week, with KC losing 4.14% and MPLS 4.75% lower. The USDA’s estimated cash average price for US wheat was trimmed 10 cents for new crop to $4.50-5.50 on Thursday. Individual wheat by class data shows HRW ending stocks for 2018/19 decreasing by nearly 164 mbu to 417, while HRS is seen jumping 92 to 283 mbu. The Rosario Grain Exchange updated their 2018/19 wheat production estimate for Argentina to 20 MMT, which would be a record if realized. Russia’s Ag Ministry projects that the country will produce 64.4 MMT of wheat for 2018/19, vs. the USDA’s newly updated 67 MMT.

Sep 18 CBOT Wheat closed at $4.97, up 12 1/2 cents,

Sep 18 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.91 3/4, up 10 1/2 cents,

Sep 18 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.31 3/4, up 1 1/4 cents

Cattle

Live cattle futures settled with most contracts 17.5 to 47.5 cents lower on Friday. Feeder cattle futures were mixed, with August down 30 cents and back months slightly higher. The CME feeder cattle index was up $1 from the previous day at $148.16 on 7/12. Wholesale boxed beef values were lower again on Friday afternoon. Choice boxes were down a sharp $2.44 to $204.14, while Select boxes were 64 cents lower at $196.37. The CH/SE spread is now down to $7.77. USDA estimated weekly FI cattle slaughter through Saturday at 650,000 head, up 26,000 from the same week last year. Cash bids crept up to $110 on Friday, with actual trade very late to develop. The USDA trimmed the top end of the range for 2018 average price by $1 to $114-117.

Aug 18 Cattle closed at $104.550, down $0.475,

Oct 18 Cattle closed at $107.375, down $0.225,

Dec 18 Cattle closed at $111.400, down $0.175,

Aug 18 Feeder Cattle closed at $150.725, down $0.300

Sep 18 Feeder Cattle closed at $151.075, up $0.100

Oct 18 Feeder Cattle closed at $151.350, up $0.075

Lean Hogs

Lean hog futures ended the Friday session with the front months steady to 27.5 cents lower and back months up triple digits. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was up 31 cents on Friday afternoon at $83.82. The ham led the way, up $3.35, with the belly $1.47 higher. The CME Lean Hog Index was down 26 cents on July 11, to $81.26. The national base carcass price was down 86 cents on Friday, reported at $74.19. USDA estimated week to date FI hog slaughter at 2.285 million head through Saturday, 88,000 head above last year. The WASDE also showed a $1 increase to the expected average price range for barrows and gilts for full year 2018.

Jul 18 Hogs closed at $79.950, unch,

Aug 18 Hogs closed at $70.150, down $0.275

Oct 18 Hogs closed at $55.300, up $1.350

Cotton

Cotton futures showed losses of 34 to 73 points in the front months on Friday, on pre-weekend profit taking. USDA’s old crop export projection for US is now at 16.2 million bales, with new crop dropping 500,000 bales to 15 million. Thursday’s WASDE showed a jump in the average cash price for 18/19 to a range of 68-82 cents/lb. CFTC’s Cotton on Call report showed December’s unfixed call sales position at 52,212 contracts on July 6, down 1,574 from the week prior. Safras & Mercado estimates that Brazil’s cotton planted acreage will rise by 10.8% in 18/19. The Cotlook A index was down 2 cents to 94.45 cents/lb on July 12. The weekly USDA AWP was updated to 76.17 cents/lb through next Thursday, up 1.58 cents from the week prior. Speculators in cotton futures and options added 1,975 contracts to their net long position as of Tuesday to a net position of 77,274 contracts.

Oct 18 Cotton closed at 88.900, down 34 points,

Dec 18 Cotton closed at 87.840, down 70 points

Mar 19 Cotton closed at 87.620, down 73 points


Market Commentary provided by:

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